Neither the leader nor anyone else is immune

Worshipping and following leaders without questioning is how many people in the world lead their lives. For them, independent thinking is hard work. Life is easier when the word of the leader (written or oral) is accepted as final.

Under this modus operandi, evidence notwithstanding, anything to the contrary is false and worthy of disbelief. Pursuing a contrarian path has varying consequences – from ridicule to even death.

What is the impact of bias? Which kinds of bias should we be watchful of? Wikipedia enlists 140! Exploring all is beyond the scope of this article; join me as we explore a few. As always – do share your thoughts and experiences.

1: Confirmation bias

The phenomena of confirmation bias has been around for ages, although the term was coined by the English psychologist Peter Watson in the 1960s. It manifests in the form of favoring or accepting as true information that which fits our pre-existing beliefs or biases.

Thus, for those who firmly believe (or have the conviction) that water can cause objects to break apart and swell, the above image will immediately become irrefutable evidence for the same. Such folks in turn can influence others who do not know the physics of refraction, nor have the wherewithal to verify the accuracy of the leader’s statements via an experiment.

This is the reason there are leaders and their believers who claim the earth is flat. Click here to see a video documenting the dialog between a commentator from Natgeo, members of the flat earth society, and others.

Such leaders are responsible for the downfall of many an organization; Kodak comes to mind. Despite mounting evidence of digital cameras gaining ground, they continued to believe the future was in film.

2: Recency and Frequency (aka Availability heuristic)

Recent events, or those that occur with high frequency stay in our minds and are available for easier recall. That is the source of this kind of bias. It leads to making decisions on limited and grossly biased data which does not provide a comprehensive and accurate picture.

This bias causes transient trends based on recent data to be interpreted as a long lasting / permanent change. Consequently leaders pivot and make major policy and strategy decisions.

At the time of this writing (July 2021), commodity prices are inching up. Consumer Price Index has increased by 5%+ over the last one year vs. typical annual increase of ~2% (as of June 2021, source: Bureau of Labor Statistics). Inflation seems to be rearing its ugly head. This jump of CPI would be reason enough for the Fed to raise interest rates, but…

Jay Powell (Chair of the Federal Reserve) refuses to get carried away by the recency and frequency bias. It is a good thing and should bode well for the US economy for years to come. 

3: Empathy gap 

This manifests in workplace behaviors that are bereft of consideration for feelings of people; the notion that only facts matter – all else doesn’t.

While a leader must stick to facts, how something is said cannot be overlooked – as explained by Christine Hassler in her blog on Huffington Post “How You Say It Is More Important Than What You Say.” She maintains that the delivery method overrides the words.

It is for this reason that savvy leaders practice meta-awareness and are very calibrated in their communications – both oral and written. They take into account the impact of their message and its delivery modality.   

4: Anchoring (aka Functional fixedness) 

This is the way we have always done it – is the bane of creativity and new ideas. Few things kill the enthusiasm of teams as effectively as such statements. Often leaders utter such words without realizing what they are saying.

Current practices get anchored in place due to past successes, however, they are not an assurance of future success. The business landscape is littered with tombstones of firms that have been victims of anchoring – Blockbuster comes to mind. Little to no meaningful measures were taken even as evidence mounted that Netflix was re-defining the landscape of entertainment.

Smart leaders know when to use anchoring to their advantage, and also recognize signs of the very same anchors turning into shackles that hold the organization back. IBM seems to have had a few leaders of this kind as evidenced by its comeback which is unfolding now. 

5: Optimism bias  

Over optimism coupled with under-estimating the probability of adverse events is the hall mark of this bias. While it is understandable why leaders need to maintain a positive outlook and keep the team’s spirits high, going overboard with optimism sows the seeds of disaster for the whole team and the organization.

This phenomenon gets accelerated if there is group think in the team. Note that the underlying reasons for group think can vary from fear to conditioning over extended periods of time.  

The honest leader knows the difference between confidence and ability. Further, he / she places the team’s and organization’s interests ahead of personal ego – no matter how tempting it is to project an image of confidence and being in control.

Roger Trapp in his article “Overconfident CEOs Are Both A Threat And An Asset” in Forbes states that boards should look for CEOs who are confident in their ability yet willing to seek assistance.

The solution lies in creating a support group that can function without fear, and staying teachable. These are key to minimizing the chance that overconfidence will creep in.

Hope you enjoyed reading and found my blog of value. Thanks for taking time to read; I would love to hear your thoughts…

Rai Chowdhary  

 

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